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Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information

Williams, Andrew Robert, Ashok, Arjun, Marcotte, Étienne, Zantedeschi, Valentina, Subramanian, Jithendaraa, Riachi, Roland, Requeima, James, Lacoste, Alexandre, Rish, Irina, Chapados, Nicolas, Drouin, Alexandre

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .


Quantitative Data Analysis: CRASAR Small Unmanned Aerial Systems at Hurricane Ian

Manzini, Thomas, Murphy, Robin, Merrick, David

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides a summary of the 281 sorties that were flown by the 10 different models of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) at Hurricane Ian, and the failures made in the field. These 281 sorties, supporting 44 missions, represents the largest use of sUAS in a disaster to date (previously Hurricane Florence with 260 sorties). The sUAS operations at Hurricane Ian differ slightly from prior operations as they included the first documented uses of drones performing interior search for victims, and the first use of a VTOL fixed wing aircraft during a large scale disaster. However, there are substantive similarities to prior drone operations. Most notably, rotorcraft continue to perform the vast majority of flights, wireless data transmission capacity continues to be a limitation, and the lack of centralized control for unmanned and manned aerial systems continues to cause operational friction. This work continues by documenting the failures, both human and technological made in the field and concludes with a discussion summarizing potential areas for further work to improve sUAS response to large scale disasters.


Decouple knowledge from parameters for plug-and-play language modeling

Cheng, Xin, Lin, Yankai, Chen, Xiuying, Zhao, Dongyan, Yan, Rui

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pre-trained language models(PLM) have made impressive results in various NLP tasks. It has been revealed that one of the key factors to their success is the parameters of these models implicitly learn all kinds of knowledge during pre-training. However, encoding knowledge implicitly in the model parameters has two fundamental drawbacks. First, the knowledge is neither editable nor scalable once the model is trained, which is especially problematic in that knowledge is consistently evolving. Second, it lacks interpretability and prevents humans from understanding which knowledge PLM requires for a certain problem. In this paper, we introduce PlugLM, a pre-training model with differentiable plug-in memory(DPM). The key intuition is to decouple the knowledge storage from model parameters with an editable and scalable key-value memory and leverage knowledge in an explainable manner by knowledge retrieval in the DPM. To justify this design choice, we conduct evaluations in three settings including: (1) domain adaptation. PlugLM obtains 3.95 F1 improvements across four domains on average without any in-domain pre-training. (2) knowledge update. PlugLM could absorb new knowledge in a training-free way after pre-training is done. (3) in-task knowledge learning. PlugLM could be further improved by incorporating training samples into DPM with knowledge prompting.


Wireless Network Demands of Data Products from Small Uncrewed Aerial Systems at Hurricane Ian

Manzini, Thomas, Murphy, Robin, Merrick, David, Adams, Justin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data collected at Hurricane Ian (2022) quantifies the demands that small uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), or drones, place on the network communication infrastructure and identifies gaps in the field. Drones have been increasingly used since Hurricane Katrina (2005) for disaster response, however getting the data from the drone to the appropriate decision makers throughout incident command in a timely fashion has been problematic. These delays have persisted even as countries such as the USA have made significant investments in wireless infrastructure, rapidly deployable nodes, and an increase in commercial satellite solutions. Hurricane Ian serves as a case study of the mismatch between communications needs and capabilities. In the first four days of the response, nine drone teams flew 34 missions under the direction of the State of Florida FL-UAS1, generating 636GB of data. The teams had access to six different wireless communications networks but had to resort to physically transferring data to the nearest intact emergency operations center in order to make the data available to the relevant agencies. The analysis of the mismatch contributes a model of the drone data-to-decision workflow in a disaster and quantifies wireless network communication requirements throughout the workflow in five factors. Four of the factors-availability, bandwidth, burstiness, and spatial distribution-were previously identified from analyses of Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018). This work adds upload rate as a fifth attribute. The analysis is expected to improve drone design and edge computing schemes as well as inform wireless communication research and development.


Optimizing Crop Management with Reinforcement Learning and Imitation Learning

Tao, Ran, Zhao, Pan, Wu, Jing, Martin, Nicolas F., Harrison, Matthew T., Ferreira, Carla, Kalantari, Zahra, Hovakimyan, Naira

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Crop management, including nitrogen (N) fertilization and irrigation management, has a significant impact on the crop yield, economic profit, and the environment. Although management guidelines exist, it is challenging to find the optimal management practices given a specific planting environment and a crop. Previous work used reinforcement learning (RL) and crop simulators to solve the problem, but the trained policies either have limited performance or are not deployable in the real world. In this paper, we present an intelligent crop management system which optimizes the N fertilization and irrigation simultaneously via RL, imitation learning (IL), and crop simulations using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). We first use deep RL, in particular, deep Q-network, to train management policies that require all state information from the simulator as observations (denoted as full observation). We then invoke IL to train management policies that only need a limited amount of state information that can be readily obtained in the real world (denoted as partial observation) by mimicking the actions of the previously RL-trained policies under full observation. We conduct experiments on a case study using maize in Florida and compare trained policies with a maize management guideline in simulations. Our trained policies under both full and partial observations achieve better outcomes, resulting in a higher profit or a similar profit with a smaller environmental impact. Moreover, the partial-observation management policies are directly deployable in the real world as they use readily available information.


Okaloosa Co. schools offering artificial intelligence classes – WKRG

#artificialintelligence

Students at nine different Okaloosa County schools will be some of the first in Florida to learn artificial intelligence in classrooms.

  Country: North America > United States > Florida > Okaloosa County (0.54)
  Industry: Media > News (0.70)

Driverless truck could take over dangerous job for road crews

AITopics Original Links

The crash trucks, fitted with a device called a truck-mounted attenuator, have been credited with saving lives. But the workers who drive them are inevitably placed in harm's way, "literally waiting to be struck," said Robert Roy, president of Royal Truck & Equipment Inc. in Coopersburg. On Monday, Royal demonstrated its new driverless crash truck that it hopes will some day improve safety at work zones around the country. Two of the autonomous vehicles will make their debut at highway construction sites in Florida by the end of the year under a state Department of Transportation demonstration program. "Any time a driver can be removed from these vehicles in a very dangerous situation, and if the vehicle's struck, there's nobody inside of it to receive the damage or the injuries, that's measuring success," Roy said.